GLW-TC96-NAM, however, outperforms GLW-TC96-NDFD in representing measured wave-height patterns and total variance. The same may be said about Tp, where the two NCEP wave models outperform the GLERL model in all validation parameters except biases. water currents and water temperatures in the 5 Great Lakes (Erie, Michigan, Superior, Huron and Ontario) for the commercial, recreation, and GLOFS is maintained in an operational environment 24 hours a day, 365 days a year, by NOAA's Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and
In the first, the second-generation wave model WISWAVE (Hubertz 1992) was run for a 32-yr period (1956–87) using a 10-mi-resolution grid, and gridded winds derived from land stations via adjustments for the transition between land–water boundary layers, stability, and measurement height. The original spatial 7. Both atmospheric model winds provide reasonably good agreement with the observations (values close to one at most buoy locations). Results: Performance of current systems, 5.
GLCFS generated nowcast guidance 4 times per day and forecast guidance out to 60 hours twice per day. GLOFS uses as its hydrodynamic model, a version of the Princeton Ocean Model (POM), a sigma coordinate (vertical), curvilinear coordinate
Both NAM- and NDFD-driven wave models at NCEP outperform the GLERL in most bulk validation statistics for Hs. Since 1974, marine forecasting in the Great Lakes region has been made in a systematic way following the creation of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL). Validation statistics of 24-h forecast surface wind speeds from the (a) NAM model and (b) NDFD, at the location of NDBC buoy 45001 (Lake Superior), during 2009.
by contributing institutions or for the use of any information through the EurekAlert system. observations and 2) map animations that depict an aerial view of a particular variable across the lakes. "Water levels are used by power authorities; wave and currents conditions are used by the U.S. Coast Guard for search and rescue missions and temperature profiles have been used by recreational boaters and fishermen," he said. They also indicate that a model with a physics parameterization that addresses wave growth in short-fetch environments, such as the GLERL wave model, has the potential to provide better predictions of storm waves in the Great Lakes. predictions to obtain the predicted total water level which is displayed on the time series plots. A more detailed description of forcing fields used in the NAM-forced GLW system (henceforth GLW-NAM) is provided next. Your email address is used only to let the recipient know who sent the email.
or, by Kelley Christensen, Michigan Technological University. "The Great Lakes have vast surface area and great depth. Current operational implementations of the WAVEWATCH III models at NCEP, including the Great Lakes wave forecasting systems, use the source terms of Tolman and Chalikov (1996, hereafter TC96). Discussion: Improved wave model physics, http://www.waveworkshop.org/12thWaves/papers/Kona11_Tolman_Banner_Kaihatu.pdf, Using ZDR Columns in Forecaster Conceptual Models and Warning Decision Making, Effects of Horizontal Grid Spacing and Inflow Environment on Forecasts of Cyclic Mesocyclogenesis in NSSL’s Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS), Skillful All-Season S2S Prediction of U.S. Precipitation Using the MJO and QBO, Updraft-based adaptive assimilation of radial velocity observations in a Warn-on-Forecast system, Cloud Resolving Model Applied to Nowcasting: An Evaluation of Radar Data Assimilation and Microphysics Parameterization, © Copyright 2019 American Meteorological Society. After building a “design” Great Lakes spectrum via merging the NDBC climatology with the extreme-forcing model results, it was decided that a discrete spectrum with 29 frequencies ranging from 0.05 to 0.72 Hz would be computationally feasible. Short-wave dissipation due to long wave breaking is computed through a formulation that assumes that a larger-scale breaker instantly dissipates all shorter-scale waves, by a factor proportional to the rate at which shorter waves are overtaken by larger breakers. • (2007) and Chen and Belcher (2000), and an ad hoc reduction of the friction velocity u* that allows balancing input with dissipation rates prescribed by new dissipation source terms accounting for self-breaking waves (“whitecapping”), swell dissipation, interactions of long breakers with short waves, and wave-turbulence interaction. Although validation statistics for the NAM model are slightly better, particularly in its ability to represent observed surface wind speed patterns and total variability, the results above indicate that both the NAM and NDFD models have nearly identical levels of skill in terms of forecasting surface wind speeds in the 24–48-h ranges. 8. Background Figure 1 illustrates the Great Lakes bathymetry currently used operationally in NCEP’s wave models. Relevant outcomes from this initiative are discussed next. Such approaches have remained feasible at the Great Lakes due to the generally simple wave conditions predominant in that region (e.g., wind-sea-dominated wave climates, with moderate swell contributions). It is therefore not surprising that the TC96 package has shown limitations in simulating waves under short/slanted fetches (Ardhuin et al. A list of abbreviations is provided in Table 1. When we quantify the model and the observation uncertainties by assessing their historical performances, we can quantitatively combine the observational data and the numerical model results with different weights and give a more accurate estimate.". The selection of the latter approach for the Great Lakes was based on a preliminary investigation performed at NCEP, which indicated a significantly better level of performance relative to the original saturation-based dissipation term described by A10. Further improvements may be obtained via a data assimilation scheme, operating in tandem with a wave ensemble system for the Great Lakes, both under development at NCEP. This may be associated with improper treatment of land–sea transition effects, as discussed in section 3c, and poor representation of the atmospheric boundary layer over the lakes. 3. More importantly, WAVEWATCH III’s new physics package led to significant improvements in the skill of NCEP’s GLW model predictions of severe sea states.
The development of a Great Lakes wave forecasting system at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is described. Building a Better Great Lakes Forecasting System, "Water levels are used by power authorities; wave and currents conditions are used by the U.S. Coast Guard for search and rescue missions and temperature profiles have been used by recreational boaters and fishermen," he said. Coastline shape determines fetch geometry, and coastline features are important when computing sheltering.
Large waves pose risks to navigation and are associated with incidents that result in the loss of property and lives.
Resolutions of the original GLERL wave model grids were on the order of 5 km, except for Lake Superior, which had a 10-km grid, and was inadequate for the higher-resolution grid used in NCEP’s system.
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